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> The U.S. Housing Market's False Dawn?
Patch 
Posted: 01-Sep-2009, 05:13 PM
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The U.S. Housing Market's False Dawn

Is the U.S. housing market truly at a turning point, as investors seem to increasingly believe? Or is this actually a false dawn, meaning that there are problems and pain ahead for those who turned bullish too soon?

New home sales jumped almost 10% in July, while the Case Shiller home price index rose for the second successive month. Yet luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers lost $493 million in the quarter ending July 31, considerably worse than analysts had expected.

This is certainly still time for caution. Most home sales are those being bought up as investments at bargain basement prices. "Some" first time buyers are taking advantage of the govt rebate too.

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MacEoghainn 
Posted: 01-Sep-2009, 05:38 PM
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Here in beautiful SW Florida it was reported today in the news that Lee County had a mere 1600 foreclosures last month compared to 2000 in the same month a year ago. I know that news made me fell much more secure. tongue.gif


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Patch 
Posted: 01-Sep-2009, 05:45 PM
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Here we are in the third round of failures. As lay off's continue different levels of mortgages go into repossession. GM is looking at a one month shutdown of it's truck production and that is going to hit suppliers hard. Some may not survive. The cash for clunkers compressed a lot of sales into a short period and most dealers figure on having a very long dry spell. They for the most part have less cars now though. That will cause more layoff's and more foreclosures.

Nothing yet gives me a sense of comfort.

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MacEoghainn 
Posted: 01-Sep-2009, 06:11 PM
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QUOTE (Patch @ 01-Sep-2009, 07:45 PM)
....The cash for clunkers compressed a lot of sales into a short period and most dealers figure on having a very long dry spell.  They for the most part have less cars now though.....

It's my understanding that the Cash for Clunkers program is so fouled up that many dealers who jumped in with both feet are now in trouble with cash flow because the government has failed to pay them for the clunkers.
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Patch 
Posted: 01-Sep-2009, 06:24 PM
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One area dealership is but most did not participate. Most new cars could support a 4500 dollar "trade in" for anything and locally that is what dealers here did. Now if there is a problem with paperwork it is my understanding that some one is stuck with 4500 dollars.

We should hear more in the next month or two.

Next is the appliance program.

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